Prediction: A Frontier Open Source LLM Will Be Released On 3rd December 2026 I have seen a version of the above plot going around Twitter and wanted to dig a bit deeper into it. What the plot above is showing is the gap between open weights LLMs and closed source LLMs. We measure this gap by looking at the frontier of performance of open weights LLMs on a benchmark and then looking back into the past how long ago was the closed source frontier at that level. It is a measure of how long it took for open source models to catch up to the new capabilities reached by the closed source model frontie